James Orlando: Latest News

Ottawa’s 2023 budget — will Canada’s previously roaring economy coast into a so-called “soft landing” as it slows, or tumble sharply into a recession?Ongoing calls from a chorus of economists predicting a recession to hit Canada in 2023 have come up against surprisingly strong economic data in the early part of the year, making the tea leaves of an economic downturn especially hard to read.A recession is a widespread decline in economic activity over a certain period of time – usually defined as two straight quarters of negative growth.Ottawa’s 2023 budget bases its economic forecast on a consensus of private sector economists.That document, released March 28, showed that economists’ place the odds of a recession higher than when they were last polled for the 2022 fall economic update.But if the economy is supposed to be slowing down right now, someone might want to tell the economy.January’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures outpaced initial estimates from Statistics Canada with 0.6 per cent growth, rebounding from the flat reading in the final quarter of 2022.Canada’s labour market meanwhile held tight with a 5.0 per cent unemployment rate through the first quarter of 2023. The country’s employers have been in a hiring mood as of late, with net 383,000 positions added since last September.

Inflation in Canada continues to surge despite the Bank of Canada’s efforts to tamp down on price growth, with some economists and the central bank’s own governor expecting an even higher reading in the June report due Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada’s efforts to tamp down on persistent inflation are increasing the odds of pushing the economy into a recession in the next year, according to some economists.

unemployment rate across Canada dropped to a new low of 5.1 per cent in May amid a jump in jobs for women, according to the latest Labour Force Survey results.Statistics Canada said Friday morning that the country added 40,000 jobs last month.The agency said that women across all age groups made up the bulk of hiring in May, with employment steady for men.The participation rate, which looks at workers employed or looking for a job, hit an all-time high of 85 per cent for core-aged women in May.Strong growth in full-time positions (135,000 new jobs) offset losses in part-time work (96,000 fewer jobs), Statistics Canada said.

The Bank of Canada is likely to hike its benchmark interest rate another half a percentage point on June 1, further raising the cost of borrowing to tackle “persistent” inflation levels not seen in 30 years, economists predict.