Efforts to accurately track the outbreak of COVID-19 in the U.S. have been hampered by a lack of access to testing. While the number of tests performed in the U.S.
has scaled up rapidly in the past two weeks, so has the underlying number of infected individuals in need of testing. New data from Gallup suggest that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases measured March 31 would more than double (or more precisely increase by a factor of 2.5) if people who requested a test, were symptomatic, and visited with a healthcare provider were actually tested.As of the three-day polling period ending March 31, I estimate that at least 266,000 Americans would test positive for COVID-19 if all symptomatic people who wanted a test got one.