India’s current lockdown has helped slow the once-exponential increase in the number of cases that marks an epidemic. But what happens afterwards?
The more reasonable models predict that these numbers will rise once the stringent measures imposed via the lockdown are lifted.
They may take some time to rise, and they will rise at different rates in different places, but rise they must. This is, at its root, the fundamental logic of epidemics.
Even if a city, district or state were successful in reducing the number of its cases to zero, this situation would always be unstable to a single infected person entering from elsewhere.