Inflation is the first risk likely to shake up 2021. Globally, opinion is divided in the absence of household consumption growth, given the pandemic’s impact on jobs and incomes, but is equally wary of how the continuing accommodative policies of central banks will play out.
A 15 December note from global investment management firm Pimco states: “Our expectation is that inflation globally will remain subdued in the near term as the effects of the pandemic—weaker consumer demand, lower energy prices, and higher unemployment—keep the price of goods in check.
However, large fiscal injections, climbing government debt, and accommodative central banks could lead to higher inflation in a post-covid world.