economy and demand remains uncertain. Globally, the average return on equity (RoE) for banks could go below 1.5% in 2021 before recovering to the 2019 pre-crisis levels of 9% by 2024—effectively a loss of five years for the banking industry.
This will likely play out in two stages—loan loss provisions that far exceed the 2008 crisis levels over a period of 12-18 months (‘the deep freeze’), followed by a period where banking revenue growth lags gross domestic product growth, or GDP (‘the gradual thaw’).The heartening news for Indian banks is that India has entered this crisis well-capitalized and “on the up".
Their provision coverage ratios improved to 65% in 2019-20, compared to 41% in 2016-17, and RoE has turned positive to 2.5% after two.