NEW DELHI : If predicting the progress of covid-19 is difficult, predicting its impact on growth and employment is even more so.
The state of the global economy, the course of the epidemic and the policy on lockdown (beyond 1 May) are all uncertain. Suffice it to say, out of four drivers of growth —consumption, investment, government expenditure and net exports—all but government expenditure have question marks.
Purely as a back-of-the-envelope number, for the entire year, secondary sector contribution will probably shave off almost 2% from growth.
For the tertiary sector, a corresponding number would be something like 1.75% and for the primary sector, something like 0.25%.