Tracking Estelle: Forecast Cone Forecasters say a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. is keeping Estelle on its current trajectory, which will mean the storm will stay off the coast of Central America.Major computer models are in agreement that the west-northwest to northwest heading will continue over the next several days.Hurricane Estelle is expected to pass over warm waters, and upper-level winds are expected to relax enough for the storm to strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday.Tracking Estelle: Forecast models The NHC expects sustained winds to reach at least 115 mph, which would make Hurricane Estelle a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.The potential major storm will only be a threat to marine interests off the coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.Dangerous rip currents are expected along beaches from the Baja of California through central Mexico.HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED?
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINEDLater in the workweek, forecasters expect conditions will become less favorable for the cyclone to maintain its organization and strength.A combination of an increase in upper levels winds and a decrease in ocean temperatures will allow for gradual weakening as Estelle moves into the open Pacific.Tracking Estelle: Pacific Water Temperatures Once Estelle is no longer a trackable feature, meteorologists will continue to monitor the basin for the next chance of tropical cyclone development.Activity in the Eastern Pacific has far outpaced the Atlantic basin because of a lack of sinking air and plenty of disturbances that have taken advantage of an uptick in warmer sea surface temperatures.