Reports about the latest Covid-19 modelling published by NPHET have topped the news agenda in recent days. Two scenarios were presented to the Cabinet sub-committee on Covid-19, covering the period to late January.
The optimistic scenario showed cases peaking around 5,000 per day in mid-December. That's about a 15% to 25% increase on the current case rate.
A peak of around 12,000 is modelled in the pessimistic scenario. In both scenarios, a peak in hospitalisations and ICU occupancy rates would occur around Christmas.
But it's important to understand the assumptions underpinning the modelling, and also that they were flagged as particularly uncertain to decision makers.