COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations for Hamilton over the next month amid Ontario’s easing of measures, particularity the lifting of a mask mandate.During a board of health meeting on Monday, the latest Scarsin forecasting revealed a pair of scenarios going into the spring, with one anticipating that infections are not likely to dip below November 2021 levels seen at the end of a wave fueled by the Delta variant.Epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told city councillors a “resurgence scenario,” taking into account the lifting of prevention measures, could result in a “small swell” of cases leading to 200 hospitalizations between now and late May.
Ontario COVID-19 mask mandate lifts for most settings “The swell is forecast to peak in mid- to late April and remain below previous January Omicron peak levels,” Sanderson said.A second “no resurgence scenario,” assuming Hamiltonians will voluntarily continue health measures recently eased, could prevent 140 new hospitalizations over the same period.Sanderson said those aged between 20 and 59 were most likely to experience hospitalization, as opposed to those over 80, due to lower levels of booster doses in that demographic.“Severe outcomes are predicted to continue to occur primarily among those 60 and older in 50 per cent of cases, but 70 per cent of admissions and 95 per cent of deaths,” said Sanderson.About 30 intensive care (ICU) admissions are anticipated with the “resurgence scenario” between now and the end of May.“The ‘resurgence scenario’ predicts 13 deaths among Hamiltonians from March 21 to May 31st, but six of these deaths could be prevented if the resurgence was avoided,” Sanderson said.“Just to underline this point, the forecast anticipates that approximately 95 per.