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Global COVID-19 deaths may be 3 times higher than recorded

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Today in The Lancet researchers say excess deaths data indicate that the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic may be more than three times higher than officially record.While official counts from countries vary, an estimated 5.9 million COVID-19 deaths were recorded globally in 2020 and 2021.

The Lancet study compared that number to weekly or monthly data on deaths from all causes in those 2 years and up to 11 years prior from 74 countries and 266 states and provinces, using government websites, the World Mortality Database, Human Mortality Database, and European Statistical Office.Excess mortality was calculated as observed mortality minus expected mortality.

The authors also excluded weekly death tolls during times of anomalies, such as heat waves, from their calculations.They estimate that the global COVID-19 death toll is closer to 18.2 million, and the excess death rate caused by the virus is 120 per 100,000 population globally.

Some countries may have more than 300 excess deaths per 100,000 population.Regional hot spots differThe study showed stark regional differences in excess deaths, with the highest rates seen in Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 population), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000), central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000), southern Africa (309 deaths per 100,000), and Central America (274 deaths per 100,000).

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