NEW DELHI : India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalisation and perhaps the worst to date, is here, CRISIL said on Tuesday as it predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal because of coronavirus lockdown. "The first quarter (April to June 2020) will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction," it said in its assessment of India's GDP. "About 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost.
So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals." In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice – as per available data – in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980.