It’s not what the virus does but how we choose to respond that will determine the fate of the global economy The global economy will be shaped in the years ahead by three trends.
The relationship between markets and the State will be rebalanced, in favour of the latter. This will be accompanied by a rebalancing between hyper-globalization and national autonomy, also in favour of the latter.
And our ambitions for economic growth will need to be scaled down. There is nothing like a pandemic to highlight markets’ inadequacy in the face of collective-action problems and the importance of state capacity to respond to crises.