The latest mathematical COVID-19 model released by Harvard University researchers predicts that recurrent winter outbreaks will probably occur after the first, most severe pandemic wave; prolonged or intermittent physical distancing may be necessary into 2022; and a resurgence is possible as late as 2024.The report, published yesterday in Science, details how the researchers used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity of the HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 human coronaviruses from US time series data to predict the likely course of the pandemic in temperate regions through 2025.
Cross-immunity reduces the rate at which someone who recovered from infection caused by one pathogen may be infected by another.Predicting the likely