loss in income since the lockdown. As incomes fell, Indians had to rely more on their savings to cover essential expenditure.
But for the poorest in cities, these savings rapidly dried up. To estimate how quickly savings are running out, we consider different scenarios of income losses for the poorest 50% of Indians (rural and urban separately) during the lockdown.
For instance, in the worst-case scenario, we assume incomes in cities fell by an average of 82% across the three phases of lockdown between April and June while in rural India, which was less affected by the lockdown, we assume incomes fell by 66%.
These scenarios are based on different studies that all report income losses within these ranges.Taking a moderate scenario of.