A statement from the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) about the next phase of modelling to better understand the present state of the coronavirus epidemic.
The next phase of modelling has begun; ‘nowcasting’. Nowcasting is the concept of using data from the previous 14 days to more accurately understand the present state of the epidemic, given the known time from infection to illness and imperfect case finding.
From this point, model ‘forecasts’ can be projected to estimate what the next fortnight will bring based on the current rate of epidemic growth.
In this statement, we look at new modelling being conducted, applying methods developed by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.