The lockdown has dealt a big blow to infrastructure firms that were already facing dwindling order flows since FY18. Stalled project execution and toll collections in roads put steady revenue growth seen in last few quarters at risk.
Brokerage firms estimate a flat or marginal drop in infra developers’ revenue in Q4 because only the last week was affected by the lockdown.
But the pain will worsen in FY21. Even if the lockdown is eased or completely lifted by 3 May, it would take time for economic activity to resume, traffic to ply to pre-lockdown levels and tolling to ramp up.
A study by Crisil Ratings estimates a 12.5% drop in traffic and 8.5% fall in toll revenue for FY21. This is even after assuming a 4% rise in toll rates and improved