India’s economic growth is likely to range between 1.5% and 4% in FY21 depending on the severity of the spread of covid-19 pandemic and the duration of the ongoing nationwide lockdown announced by the government, the World Bank said on Sunday. “If a large-scale domestic contagion scenario is avoided, early policy measures payoff, and restrictions to the mobility of goods and people can be lifted swiftly, an upside scenario could materialize in FY21, with growth around 4%.
However, if domestic contagion is not contained, and the nationwide shutdown is extended, growth projections could be revised downwards to 1.5%, and fiscal slippages would be larger," the Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus.
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