Those who think the market is missing something because it is up so much are misinterpreting what has driven it to those levels The disconnect between the stock market message of glad tidings to capitalists and the economy’s slump into the worst performance since the Great Depression is unmissable.
Are investors making a horrible mistake? In zoological terms, is the 34% rebound since the low of March 23 the start of a new bull market or merely a dead cat bounce we will all forget when the bear returns?
My starting point is that I would worry about the scale of the rebound if I thought investors were becoming confident about a rapid, V-shaped recovery, which appears unlikely.