Covid has cast us into the dark on many fronts, causing anxiety, stalling decisions and worsening the economy. But not everything need be as uncertain as it seems right now The conquest of uncertainty, one might argue, was the dawn of civilization.
Its first big enabler was agriculture, the advent of which meant we did not have to worry about where our next meal would come from.
Covid-19, however, has flung us back into the dark in several ways. This is not just about food anxiety among the poor, an acute lack of certainty afflicts us all today, even decision makers.
If it were just a matter of risk, it would not be so bad. But, unlike risk, which can be estimated in terms of probability—and thus hedged, priced, etc.—uncertainty casts us