NEW DELHI: As India contemplates an exit strategy from the 40-day long nationwide lockdown ending 3 May, Swiss bank UBS on Wednesday projected the country’s economy to contract 3.1% if mobility restrictions stay in place until end-June and economic activity returns to normal by end-August.
However, for the base case scenario, assuming current mobility restrictions are lifted by mid-May, and economic activity is largely back to normal by end-June, the Indian economy could contract 0.4% in FY21 from its earlier estimate of 2.5% growth. “The challenges for India versus its peers are starker if infections spread rapidly considering India's higher population density per capita, weaker health infrastructure and limited resources for intensive
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